ChatGPT Still Leads the Chatbot Market — But Gemini Is Closing the Gap Faster Than Expected
New market research from Similarweb and app analytics firm Sensor Tower reveals that ChatGPT continues to command the largest share of the consumer AI chatbot market, but Google's Gemini is gaining ground at a pace that is surprising analysts who expected OpenAI's head start to be more durable. ChatGPT's global monthly active user base grew 18% year-over-year to approximately 420 million users, while Gemini's user base expanded 94% over the same period, reaching an estimated 290 million monthly actives — closing a gap that was measured in hundreds of millions just twelve months ago. The compression is attributed to Google's aggressive integration of Gemini across Search, Android, Workspace, and YouTube, giving it distribution channels that no standalone AI product can replicate. DeepSeek, which briefly topped app store charts in January, has stabilized at an estimated 110 million monthly actives — a significant presence for a model from a Chinese hedge fund's research lab that was unknown outside AI circles six months ago. The data reinforces the emerging consensus that the chatbot market is stratifying: a top tier of ChatGPT, Gemini, and Claude for power users, with a growing middle tier of specialized and regional models capturing vertical demand.
Elena Volkov4 min read